TOPLINE
At first glance, former Vice President Joe Biden’s consistent lead over President Trump in the polls may appear no more durable than Hillary Clinton’s lead in 2016, but several factors suggest Biden is better placed than Clinton was to take the White House.
Scranton, PA - AUGUST 15: Democratic Presidential nominee Hillary Clinton holds a rally with Vice ... [+]
KEY FACTS
Biden’s lead outpaces those of both Clinton and former President Barack Obama; he’s ahead of Trump by 9 points in the RealClearPolitics average—double Clinton’s 4.5 point lead over Trump at this point in 2016 and larger than Obama’s 5.5 point lead over John McCain in July 2008 and 2.5 point lead over Mitt Romney in July 2012.
Biden is also far more popular than Clinton was, with a 44.5% favorable and 46.0% unfavorable in the RealClearPolitics average compared to Clinton’s 39.5% favorability and 55.5% unfavorability at this point in 2016.
The state of the economy, a critical factor in nearly every election, seems to be giving Biden an edge as well, closing the gap with Trump on economic polling from double digit deficits in April and May to statistical ties in polls this past week (Clinton tended to trailed Trump by double digits on this issue).
Trump also suffers from an incumbent’s burden, with 68% of Americans saying the country is on the wrong track comparing to just 24% who say it’s moving in the right direction, according to RealClearPolitics.
That margin was nearly identical in July 2016 (66% said wrong track and 25% picked right direction)—but Trump was the non-incumbent party’s nominee then and positioned as the candidate of change, a title that now belongs to Biden.
Four years of solidly right-wing governance has also evaporated Trump’s advantageous position of being viewed as a relative moderate; A Gallup poll in October 2016 showed 58% of voters viewed Clinton as liberal and 37% viewed her as conservative or moderate, while 47% viewed Trump as conservative and 41% viewed him as liberal or moderate; but in May, a Hill/HarrisX poll showed that 62% now view Trump as conservative and 38% view him as moderate or liberal, compared to 50% who said Biden is a liberal and 50% who said he’s a moderate or conservative.
Key Background
A critical factor in Clinton’s electoral college loss in 2016 is that she underperformed among key demographic blocs with whom Biden is uniquely strong. A Monmouth poll released Thursday put Biden up by 21 points among voters older than 65, a high-turnout group with particularly outsized influence in Florida. Clinton lost that group by 7 points, according to CNN exit polls. A recent New York Times poll of six swing states put Biden up 21 points with college-educated white voters and down just 4 points with white voters overall, groups that Trump won by 3 points and 20 points respectively.
Big number
41.5%. Trump’s approval in the RealClearPolitics average is just 41.5%, compared to a 56% disapproval rating. FiveThirtyEight editor-in-chief Nate Silver noted in 2011 that, since the advent of election polling in 1940, no incumbent president with an approval rating lower than 48% has won their reelection bid, while every president with an approval rating higher than 49% has been reelected. That held true for Obama, who had an approval rating of 50% on the eve of the 2012 election. Trump has never held an approval rating higher than 47% at any point in his presidency.
Surprising fact
Despite the common myth that 2016 featured a historic polling upset, the polls actually weren’t that far off. The RealClearPolitics average had Clinton winning the national popular vote by 3.3 points, and she ended up winning it by 2.1 points, well within the margin of error and closer than the 3.2 point error in 2012. In the swing states, Trump underperformed by 0.5 points in Arizona and overperformed by 0.8 points in Florida, 2.7 points in North Carolina, 2.8 points in Pennsylvania and 3.7 points in Michigan; all within the margins of error. His largest overperformance in a swing state came in Wisconsin, where he won by 0.7 points despite trailing by 6.5 points in the polls.
