As the top three finalists get ready to perform two songs each tonight on "American Idol," most observers are expecting Lee DeWyze and Crystal Bowersox to easily coast into next week's final showdown.
Idol fans and bloggers everywhere, it seems, are treating the third remaining finalist – construction worker/ bar-band rocker Casey James – like an uninvited guest who just crashed the party.
But don’t count this easy-going Texan out of the game just yet. All it takes is one more solid night of singing and strong fan support, and this season’s oldest finalist could find himself in the top 2.
After that, anything could happen.
It’s still unlikely Casey will win the title, but it’s not impossible.
Why? Casey has wide demographic appeal. Teenage girls find him attractive, and so do older women. Guys admire Casey’s impressive guitar skills. And southerners like his taste in country music, southern rock and classic rock.
If this were a political race, Casey would have the teen vote, the college vote, the cougar vote and the southern conservative vote virtually locked up.
That’s a huge voter base. Just something to consider before you anoint Lee or Crystal as the next American Idol.
STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES
Here’s a quick glimpse of the three remaining finalists, where they’re from, what they do best and where they could use a little help…
Age: 27
Hometown: Grew up in Cool, Texas; now resides in Fort Worth, Texas
Occupation: Construction worker; singer in a bar band
Idol audition song: "Slow Dancing in a Burning Room" by John Mayer
Musical influences: Lynyrd Skynyrd, Harry Connick Jr., Ronnie Bowman, James Taylor, Frank Sinatra
Did you know? Casey was the oldest contestant to make it to the semi-final round of 24 this season. He overcame two major obstacles in his life: a bad reaction to the whooping cough vaccine that nearly caused him brain damage as a child, and a bad motorcycle crash when he was 21, when doctors thought he might not be able to play the guitar again.
Strengths: Rugged good looks, southern charm, terrific guitar player (perhaps the best to ever grace the Idol stage), at his best vocally when he sings with his acoustic guitar. If you haven't seen his "Jealous Guy" performance from Lennon-McCartney week, check out the video clip in this post, and you'll see why Casey can't be counted out.
Weaknesses: Seems lost without his guitar; has difficulty adjusting to songs outside of his main genre (hard rock and soft rock); critics think his looks, more than his singing skills, carried him into the semi-finals and the finals.
Can he win the title? Maybe, but it's not likely to happen. Lee and Crystal have better vocal range and have been fan favorites (and judges' favorites) for far too long. But… don't be surprised if Casey makes it to the final two. If he performs well tonight on both songs, his fans could out-vote Crystal's fans, and we could see a season finale of Lee vs. Casey. It's an unlikely scenario, but it can't be ruled out.
Age: 24
Occupation: Singer-songwriter; mother of a young child
Hometown: Grew up in Elliston, Ohio; now residing in Toledo, Ohio.
Idol audition song: "Piece of My Heart" by Janis Joplin
Musical influences: Janis Joplin, Melissa Etheridge, Jewel, Tracy Chapman, Joan Baez, Joni Mitchell
Did you know? Crystal is a twin -- she has a fraternal twin brother. Crystal used to perform gospel music at a church in her town. Crystal suffers from diabetes; she had to be hospitalized one day before a live Idol performance, prompting the show's producers to push the performance date back by one day.
Strengths: Powerful, raspy voice (think Janis Joplin meets Melissa Etheridge). Can sing any song and make it sound great. Comfortable on stage, especially with a guitar in her hand (acoustic or electric), gives off a cool folk-rocker vibe.
Weaknesses: Earlier this season, she turned off some Idol fans by acting a little too serious, and coming across as a bit snooty. However, she has progressively become warmer and more charming, and even if you don't like her personality, you can't deny she's an extraordinary singer. (And she can play a pretty mean guitar, as well as the harmonica.)
Can she win the title? Yes. She is the best all-around singer in the Top 3, she's the most consistent singer, and she deserves to win. But she can only do that if her fan base comes out strong during the final two voting nights (May 18 and May 25).
Age: 24 (he turned 24 on April 2)
Occupation: Paint store sales rep
Hometown: Mount Prospect, Illinois
Idol audition song: "Ain't No Sunshine" by Bill Withers
Musical influences: Ben Harper, Simon & Garfunkel, Eric Clapton, Cat Stevens
Did you know? Before auditioning for "American Idol" last year, Lee recorded two independent albums ("So I'm Told," released in 2007, and "Slumberland," released in January 2010)
Strengths: Raspy rocker voice; sounds great when he's in tune; can energize the Idol audience with his rockin' growl; he comes across as very modest and down to earth; the Idol judges hardly ever criticize him, even when he has an off-night.
Weaknesses: His voice drifts slightly out of tune far too often. Still seems uncomfortable on stage after all these weeks of performing on Idol. A little too shy and quiet for a potential music star.
Can he win the title? Yes. Lee has a very good shot at winning. Even though Crystal deserves to win, Lee seems to have a bigger fan base, which kept him out of the bottom three spots every single week.
TONIGHT'S SHOW & SOME SONGS
-- 8 p.m. to 9 p.m. on Fox: This will be the second-to-last performance show of the season, and each contestant will be singing two songs – one chosen by the judges and one chosen by the contestants.
-- The judges' choices, according to Zap2It.com and JoesPlaceBlog.com, are:
• Ellen DeGeneres chose Paul McCartney's "Maybe I'm Amazed" for Crystal.
• Simon Cowell picked Leonard Cohen's "Hallelujah" for Lee. (It's a great song, but that means we'll be hearing it for the second time this season. And the guy who picked it is the same guy who is always telling the contestants there are "thousands of songs you could have chosen to sing.")
• Randy Jackson and Kara DioGuardi picked John Mayer's "Daughters" for Casey.
No word yet on the contestants' own song choices.
-- Wednesday elimination: Tomorrow night (9 p.m. to 10 p.m.) will determine who goes home and who advances to the final showdown. Singer Travis Garland (a former member of boy-band NLT) is scheduled to take the stage, and teen pop sensation Justin Bieber is set to perform two of his hits, "Baby" and "U Smile."
HOMETOWN VISITS
Last Friday, the three remaining singers all took part in a fun, and sometimes emotional, Idol tradition – paying a visit to their hometown after making it to the final three.
Footage from those visits will be shown this week on Fox. But before the trip, each contestant was praising the people of their hometowns for all their support, and Crystal said she hoped her performances would help lift the spirits of the people of small-town Elliston, Ohio.
Crystal was honored at a parade in Toledo, Lee threw out the first pitch at a Chicago Cubs game and Casey gave a concert before lots of screaming fans (estimated at 2,000) in Fort Worth.
Len Melisurgo is a local news editor at The Star-Ledger and a self-professed reality TV addict.
AARON KELLY: PHOTO GALLERY / SLIDESHOW
SIOBHAN MAGNUS: PHOTO GALLERY / SLIDESHOW
TIM URBAN: PHOTO GALLERY / SLIDESHOW
BIG MIKE LYNCHE: PHOTO GALLERY / SLIDESHOW
NJ.com/ Star-Ledger American Idol Season 9 Archive